A small-business owner, who didnt want to be identified, said hes voting for Biden. But, he said, he also doesnt complain. Hes an elitist and just couldnt keep his mouth shut. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. Here, a farming operation is pictured in Bowling Green, Ohio in Wood County, a bellwether county in America's Heartland experiencing problems such as inflation and high gas prices, affecting every day life. Because of the current situation, I have to look at our finances and say, Can I get this new truck, can I hire these two to three new employees, can we go into this new line of business? TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Were not going to be able to afford this Democratic regime. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. I cannot support a candidate that is not pro-life. Pro-life is one of the top items on his list of issues. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. I mean the whole world ought to be mad at China, we should all be going to war against them. His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. Its just too depressing, too much bad and evil going on in the world, Shepherd told The Epoch Times. Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. Its crazy. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. She said she almost never votes, but this year decided to vote for President Donald Trump. But the thing that stuck out in my head, every time I read or listened to anything about [Obamas] policies, I saw such a deep revival of division, causing division between the blacks and the whites again, Jacobs said on Sept. 17. Weve always had a mix of voters, Baumgardner added. With all the inflation, its challenging, and can be tricky to run a business, Miller, 58, said. For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. People need to get a job, get out and work. The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. It doesnt matter whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, youre going to get a crook. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. These counties also disproportionately came from the Midwest and the Northeast. TERRE HAUTE, Ind.For well over a century, voters in Vigo County, Indiana, have backed the winner in almost every presidential election. In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. The United States needs to get back to where were responsible, energy independent, and get away from the thought process of these liberal socialists in office., Government is out of control, he added. Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. But you cant winem all, Beggs, 80, told The Epoch Times. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. bellwether. At least Biden is honest, he said. The 19 bellwether counties are highlighted in red. July 4, 2022 bellwether counties epoch timesdid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independencedid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independence It bisects six counties Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia but is far bigger than the . Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Things happen for a reason, and its out of our control until things change, Brendon told The Epoch Times. He pissed off a lot of people. About The Author. "The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). By Cara Ding. And its just so easy to snowball it to where chances are, if youre not very careful and work very hard in the other direction, you may just [continue a life of crime].. In the southern area just off Interstate 75 sits Bowling Green, the county seat and home of Bowling Green State University and Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where the Falcons draw large crowds in the Mid-American Conference. Data de l'entrada martin county clerk of court jobs; whats wrong secretary kim dramawiki . Hes feeding people, instead of beating them up, to get stuff accomplished. After the 46-state landslide, James Farley, Roosevelts campaign manager, revised the theory: As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high-scoring counties, they said. There were lines of boaters with banners and flagsthere mustve been about 2,000 boats full of people participating, Tammy added. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. In addition to Florida Gov. They are not even the regular masks to filter it out. We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. Blaine County. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. Now, just because my president is Republican, I expected a swing to the right, but what we have nowthey broke the whole pendulum. Miller cited seeing some retail and light industrial development around the county in recent yearsa Bass Pro Shops store in Bowling Green, a 1 million-square-foot expansion for First Solar in Perrysburg in 2018, and downtown revitalization in Bowling Green. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Those are the biggest issuesthe economy and national security. SACRAMENTO . Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic, while Westmoreland County in Virginia is almost one-third black. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. They need to take care of the older people here. Ottawa County is also the home to the Marblehead lighthouse (the oldest lighthouse in continuous operation on the Great Lakes), Africa Wildlife Safari, and its county seat of Port Clinton is known as the Walleye Capital of the World. I think all politicians are crooks. Thus it would appear that bellwether. They caused this, they brought it on because they dont like him, Fannin said. To accept cookies, click continue. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. We know that President Donald Trump won 18 of the 19 historic bellwether counties those that have regularly predicted the outcome of presidential contests. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high-scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. Since then, he has been doing odd jobs, such as cutting grass or trimming trees for neighbors. We use cookies on this site to understand how you use our content, and to give you the best browsing experience. Things have been bad for so long, they dont care.. The median household annual income is approximately, In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. In 2016, Pennsylvania itself was wrenched out of its 24-year run as a Democratic sure bet when Donald Trump cleared just over 44,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton and took the states prized 20 electoral votes. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. And just a few miles outside the countys urban center of Terre Haute, youll find a sprawl of soybean and corn farms, with a rural demographic that often leans Republican. First, we can readily imagine that some counties demographically/politically mirror the nation, and thus monitoring this small set of counties closely would tell us with high predictive reliability what will happen nationally. Republican Gov. Articles after the 2020 election examining the predictive power of previous bellwethers are found in other sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Epoch Times. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. I just think theres going to be a lot of problems if he doesnt become our president all the violence and the riots. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the nineteen counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections. I believe in a time cycle. Hamilton sees value in both parties, he said, but he considers himself Democratic-leaning. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. Though Myers leans toward Trump, he hasnt made up his mind to vote for him yet; he didnt vote for Trump in 2016. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. However, in the 2020 primary election, more Democrats had turned out to vote3,413 to 2,598 Republicans, usually an indicator of how the presidential election is going to go, party officials believe. Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. I quit voting once out of the union.. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. It swung from Barack Obama in 2012 to Donald Trump in 2016, and political science professor Matthew Bergbower says its something akin to a purple county.. We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. But its still anyones game when taking into account the 1.2 million unaffiliated or other-party voters and the roughly 70 percent voter turnout. Our roads need to be fixed. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a three-point margin. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Theres significant variability among them, though. He also intends to vote in personto ensure his vote is counted that day, although he used a mail-in ballot to vote in the primary. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. This includes personalizing content and advertising. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. Two states have announced recounts. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. I believe in what they call entitlement programs, Hamilton said. All the negativity, and just pure anger for this one person in office I have never seen it before. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in Texas (San Antonio) has had only one miss since 1928 (preferring the Democrat Hubert Humphrey in 1968). The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. This includes personalizing content and advertising. And we just want that to continue. Hawker said although Ottawa County tends to lean more Republican, he has noticed that a lot of senior citizens who are Democrats have moved into the area.